Mercer, Liberals and cheap shots

On another budget related note, the Liberals are taking cheap shots at the NDP in their amendment to the budget:

The brief Liberal amendment says that the House recognizes “that this Budget contains some initiatives that attempt to mirror sound and intelligent Liberal policy proposals, but regrets that the government has made significant economic policy mistakes over the past two years and shown an NDP-like lack of fiscal prudence that prevent it from dealing with a downturn in the Canadian economy.” (emphasis added)

Now, the Liberals cannot possibly be referring to the various administrations in Saskatchewan, Manitoba and B.C. that passed balanced budgets, paid down debt and provided social services to its citizens. I suppose selective memory has kicked in and they have forgotten about their patron saint Pierre Trudeau and the huge budget deficits, high unemployment and high inflation that marked his time in office. To be fair, the dynamic duo of Jean Chretien/Paul Martin did bring in an era of balance budgets, but the 1995 budget stands as a symbol of cuts to education, unemployment insurance, housing, health and transfer payments that continues to pain us today.

Perhaps this is just a ploy so that they can say that the NDP could have vote down the budget but instead voted against their amendment.

Perhaps this is a sign of the eventual campaign where the Liberals spend their time fear mongering about what the NDP, as the Official Opposition, will do to the economy.

Regardless, you know it is bad when a friendly publication starts taking pot shots.

Quick notes

Budget is released. Marc Lee over at Relentlessly Progressive Economics does a nice summary of what he has termed a "do-nothing budget".

The G&M does a quick rundown on the budget (quick in terms of both the rundown and the few highlights). Highlights included $10 billion towards debt reduction, $2 billion for a permanent infrastructure fund, $500 million for public transit, and $250 over five years to help the automotive industry develop more environmentally friendly vehicles (was this not announced last year?)

No election (yet) - Liberals decided that a budget that does nothing is the direction that they are heading in. The Bloc and NDP announced that they will not support the budget, but word is still out on why they will not support it.

In the biggest shocker of the day, the Habs dealt their goalie, Christobal Huet, to Washington, and missed out on getting Marian Hossa who went to Pittsburgh. Definitely a risky trade and that Habs must rely on two youngsters in the lead up the place offs. It suggests that Gainy is looking past this year already.

On re-soling

Much is being made of Jim Flaherty's bucking the trend of buying new shoes and getting his old pair re-soled. This political spin is to symbolize how prudent a Minister of Finance he is. His last two budgets provide ample ammunition to dissuade this notion of Flaherty being a prudent financial leader. According to Jim:

Getting the shoes redone is something I do anyway, but it suits this budget. This is a budget that is prudent. We are spending, but spending in a controlled way given the economic circumstances this year and next year.

I am not convinced that re-soling shoes are the cost-efficient way to go. Having been the Minister of Finance for the past two years, Flaherty has had the opportunity to buy new "budget day" shoes on two past occasions. He may have opted for a stylish pair of shoes from Zara's for $80 (plus tax). Affordable with cheap leather and a rubber sole. A great show for the professional just starting out, but the shoe would need to be replaced within a year. Alternatively, Flaherty could have bought a pair of Hugo Boss shoes for $300 - stylish, good leather with a leather sole. These shoes will last for three to four years under normal use. Perhaps even longer for if they are re-soled. So if Flaherty was prudent, he would buy the more expensive better quality shoe that he would not need to replace after a year.

As the House of Commons sits primarily during the winter months, Flaherty would spend a significant about of time in Ottawa when the streets are covered with slush and salt - which is obviously hard on shoes. However, a prudent consumer would invest in a pair of galoshes that protects his good quality shoes from the rough pavement that wears on the soles of pedestrians. Alternatively, he would invest in a pair of Blundstones boots and then change into his quality shoes when he gets to work. Once again, this would reduce the amount of wear and tear on his shoes.

At work, the House of Commons is covered in marble and rug floors. This hardly is the type of flooring that would significantly impact the wear and tear of his shoes. Similarly, sitting in the House of Commons or in his office at the Department of Finance is hardly the rough treatment that good quality shoes are made to respond to.

When traveling to his home in Oshawa or to events around Ottawa, Flaherty rides in a "fuel efficient" E-85 vehicle. This vehicle was included in the 2007 budget as a fuel efficient vehicle that the government is promoting and it just happens to be made in his riding. Sitting in a car, similar to sitting in the House of Common, should not cause much wear and tear on his shoes.

As a good quality pair of shoes should last at least three-years, as he would have bought at least one, possibly two, pairs of shoes for the two past budgets, and as Flaherty's routine should not cause more wear and tear than one would expect from normal use, then Flaherty should not even be in the market to repair his shoes let alone contemplate a new pair. Therefore, his stunt to have his shoes re-soled was not an act of being prudent. It was a frivolous act.

Out of curiosity, did any reporters actually examine his shoes prior to being repaired? If so, did they look to be in need of repair and was Flaherty questioned on why his shoes need repair after a relatively short period of use? These questions would tell more about whether this is a prudent Minister of Finance than his political stunt.

Dear Jim, let's talk about the budget

Hi Jim, it is the Wheatsheaf. I want to talk you about the budget.

How did I get this number? It is in the phone book. You really should not be so accessible to the public, because terrorists could be combing the internet in search of your personal information to use against soldiers in Afghanistan. But, I did not call to lecture on that, I am calling about the budget. I run this blog called the Wheatsheaf, and ...

What? Oh, you have read it! Well that is quite flattering... what? oh... well, that is not so flattering.

Well, despite what you think, I am calling as a concerned citizen. Since you have seen my blog, you know that we are not on the same team, but I think we both want what is best for Canada. Now, your corporate tax cut agenda is unacceptable to me.

No more GST cuts you say? Well I appreciate that. I still feel that the GST should not have been cut in the first place and that money should have used to the help out the cities. What about personal income tax cuts?

Expect little, eh? I agree with you that the GST tax cut was a bold political decision, but that does not mean it was a sound economic policy. You have to stop putting politics ahead of policy. You are the Minister of Finance man, not some invisible backbencher!

I am sure that we do not see eye to eye on investing in social housing, women's initiatives, international development, post-secondary education, research and development and growing a knowledge based economy - but that does not mean we cannot find some common ground. What about environmental initiatives such as a carbon tax like what your buddy Gordie did out in B.C.?

"Read, my lips. No new taxes." That is funny, Jim. Very original.

What about infrastructure? Giving to urban centres may win the Conservatives votes. I would propose money earmarked for various public transit systems, such as for proposals on high-speed trains between Windsor and Quebec City and between Calgary and Edmonton, as well as for the skytrain extensions out in B.C. Think about - it creates jobs and it you could use the high-speed train project as a carrot to entice Bombardier to build it's new CSeries planes in Canada (a little, planes build in Canada for future opportunities).

Oh, you will be investing in infrastructure and auto-manufacturers! I am glad Steve's adherence to free market principles is not so dogmatic that your government would not be wanting to help working people out.

I have been reading that despite your campaign promise to have predictable budgets, you are again pulling a Paul Martin and introducing a surplus that is larger than expected. $13 billion could do a lot of good, but I am worried that you will waste in on your cronies. I already told you that I worry about your hard-on for unsustainable tax cuts, but I also worry about your Conservative government's willingness to appoint your friends to plum positions. What about putting that money towards debt reduction? That way you are not seen doing anything as unholy by your flock as putting money into social programs, but you are not doing anything as unsustainable as cutting taxes and thereby preventing government from doing what it is suppose to do. Debt reduction is sound planning. The quicker we get the bankers out of our pockets, the quicker we can move forward on real social policy initiatives.

Now, I understand that you have a few surprises up your sleeves. I am not surprised. It sounds like you will have an election style protests despite your initial indications. You know that the Liberals are in a weak spot and an election now will be beneficial for you. The question remains what poison pill will you have in the budget that the Liberals will not vote for? Removing payments to the political parties might be an option, eh? I that would certainly bankrupt the Liberal party, but it would be a tough issue to make the Liberals go to an election against. The Liberals are smart enough not to look self-serving.

Increased military spending? The Liberals have already flip-flopped on Afghanistan, so I think they may be willing to support military spending.

Privatizing the CBC? Ouch, that may be an issue that would get the Liberals up in arms, but they are an unpredictable bunch. Unlike the NDP, the Liberals have a keen sense of self-preservation so I cannot comment on what they may or may not vote for.

You must run to pick-up your resoled shoes? That was a nice piece of spin Jim. Thanks for the time and good talking to you. Remember, please don't sell Canadians short. Good day.

Trade the coach

Today is the NHL trade deadline.

I went to the Ottawa Sens - Toronto Mapleloafs game last. The Sens lost 5-0 to a basement team. Yes, Emery's goaltending was shaky, but so was the team. It felt like watching a game eight years in the future - Alfredson, Spezza and Heatly are still the sentimental core of a team that is still talented, but slow and beatable. Clearly the team is not responding to Coach Paddock. It is never too late to save a good team.

Today is the NHL trade deadline.

Trade the coach.

UPDATE:

They missed the trade deadline, and they got nothing for their coach. I am sure he was worth a sixth round scout or something.

These are meager times for Saskatchewan...

Although provincial finances don't appear as bad as they did a few months ago, the first Saskatchewan Party budget won't go overboard with spending, Finance Minister Rod Gantefoer says.

Phew, I was really worried that the NDP had left too much money in the government coffers when they left office. Good to know that the economic boom that was started under the previous NDP government hasn't forced the Saskatchewan Party to spend too much, but I guess we will have to wait a while longer before we can get our hot tub tax credits.

In November, Premier Brad Wall described the province's financial situation as "fairly stark."

The government said despite being on track with a $527-million surplus for the current fiscal year, expenses were growing fast.

Well of course expenses will be growing fast. If you are going to payout a bunch of severance packages to experiences staff, as well as appoint your own partisan workers at a wage hire than their predecessors, than of course expenses will grow. Same with when you create a new corporation with a board of private entrepreneurs instead of the usual civil service model. Building questionable corporations will always cost money. The NDP learned that with Spudco. Considering the mileages the Saskatchewan Party had in portraying the NDP as poor business makers because of Spudco, it is surprising that they do not show better judgment.

"We have to build the economy based on sustainable expenditures," he said Thursday.

"If we have extraordinary incomes and revenues because of very good prices, we should target those kinds of things towards infrastructure and investment and paying down debt."

Paying down debt in a time of prosperity is good. What about investing in people? I understand that investing in education and housing are good means of ensure a better workforce.

Polling for the Tories

Others have added far more subtext to the latest polls than what I could provide (see e.g.), but there is still an important comment to make. 40% is considered to be the bridge for majority territory and, thus the magical numbers that the Tories are shooting for. However, the focus should not be on the Tories performance but on the opposition parties, in particular the Liberals. The latest Strategic Counsel poll has the parties at:

Conservative 39% [+3]
Liberal 27% [-3]
NDP 12% [0]
Bloc 10% [-1]

The good news for the Conservatives is not their rise in popularity, although I am sure they appreciate it as much as a cup of hot cocoa on a cold winters night. The good news is the Liberals numbers. The Tories have a low level of support in some of Canada's most densely populated ridings (e.g. Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal). The Liberals have broad support across Canada. Thus, when pollsters conduct their thousand person survey, densely populated areas pull down the Tories support. For example, the Conservatives probably register low support in downtown Toronto but higher support in the 905 belt while the Liberals maintain a relatively equal amount of support throughout the region. Likewise, the NDP support gets skewed in these polls because they have a strong vote base in downtown Toronto but are weak in the 905 belt. Data from the GTA area will take the average of these areas, but it does not recognize that the Tories could win the 905 seats and the NDP could take the downtown Toronto seats, while the Liberals come in second in many races despite having solid numbers.

Having the Liberals stalled in the polls simply means that their support is spread out thin across the country without a foreseeable catalyst to pump it up. The Tories do not have to win every riding, just a majority of ridings. In a country like Canada, that means that the Tories can win the rural vote and seats in smaller urban centres and win a majority without winning seats in major centres. Meanwhile, the Liberals will be competitive in most ridings without winning enough to form government.

I suspect that the Tories internal polls are better than the Strategic Counsel numbers. Regardless, with numbers like these it makes you wonder what the Conservatives will put in next weeks budget to force the Liberals vote against it...

UPDATE:

In response to Scott’s comment that the above was an indirect partisan attack on Liberals because I omitted poll results favourable to the Liberals, here are more poll results:

Harris-Decima:

Conservative 35%
Liberal 33%
NDP 13%
[Bloc 35% in Quebec]
Green 13%

Ipsos-Reid (Feb. 16)

Conservative 36%
Liberal 29%
NDP 13%
[Bloc 35% in Quebec]
Green 10%

The thesis remains the same – the Conservatives are stronger than they appear in these polling results. While the Liberals may have support in most ridings, the Conservatives support is voter focused and likely to lead to gains in specific regions. The Conservatives do not even have to beat the Liberals in popular vote, they simply need to win more ridings than the Liberals. If the Liberals poll between 20 to 30 percent in 200 ridings, that is 200 ridings where the Liberals could easily come in second despite a good showing.

I suspect that Liberals recognize this and smart people close to Dion are advising him not to go to an election. I suspect that the Conservatives internal polling is showing this and Harper wants to go to an election.

NDO is in your house

Apparently I missed the flurry of emails, notices and blog postings that today is the official launch of New Democratics Online. It even comes with a nice shout out from the Grand Poobah himself, Jack Layton.


A clap of hands for Ravijo and Devin for the excellent work that they have done in getting this up and running.

I would also like to thank Stephen Dion. The goal was to have NDO up and running before an election, and at this rate NDO 9.0 will be up and running by the time we finally have an election.

Est-ce-que le NPD a une bonne chance de faire une percée en Outaouais?

Thomas Mulcair continues to role out his Quebec team. Last week, Mulcair crossed the river to announce Pierre Ducasse as the candidate for Hull-Alymer. Ducasse is a long time party stalwart who has acted as the NDP's Quebec Lieutenant from 2003-2007, and he has previously ran for the party in Manicouagan. He also sought the leadership of the NDP in 2003, where he charmed delegates at the convention by stating "pour avoir les résultats que vous n'avez jamais eus, il faut faire ce que vous n'avez jamais fait." It would be wonderful for the NDP to represent both sides of the Outaouais - Paul Dewar representing Parliament and Ducasse representing Parliament's backyard. However, Ducasse has his work cut out for him as he will have to double the NDP vote from 2006 to even have a shot at winning.

Next door to Hull-Alymer in Gatineau, rumours are swirling that former Liberal MP Francoise Boivin may seek the NDP nomination. She has reportedly become disillusioned with Liberal infighting, disenchanted that the Liberals are pursuing the wrong issues, and resentful that the riding of Gatineau, which she lost to the Bloc's Richard Nadeau in 2006, is being held for a "prominent" candidate. After the negative publicity surrounding Dion's appointment of Joan Beatty in Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, who can blame her for being taken aback when Dion has a "prominent" candidate in mind. On the other hand, more Liberals joining the NDP fold should make those principled partisans cringe.

UPDATE:

It is official, Francoise Boivin will be the NDP candidate in Gatineau. Here's to hoping that the NDP can pick up another Quebec seat.

Sweet! Free trade with Liechtenstein!

I had been so excited about the election in Alberta and the non-election federally that it slipped by me that Canada signed a free trade agreement with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). The EFTA are those neutral European countries that are so interested in being beige that they refuse to join the European Union.

That is right, Canada can now trade goods with Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein without those mettlesome duties interfering! This will be beneficial when Alberta carries through with its long promised threat of "let[ting] the Eastern bastards freeze" and Ontario will need to rely on Norway for it's oil. Wait, we have Hibernia off Newfoundland so maybe Ontario will not be completely screwed if Alberta separates. But the agreement with the EFTA does mean that we will get swiss chocolate for an even cheaper price. On the other hand, it is an incontestable fact that Belgium chocolate is better and it is not as if Lindt chocolate is unaffordable. Iceland? Who knows what Iceland has to trade. As for Liechtenstein, well, they can provide knowledge on how to be completely subservient to your larger neighbour while maintaining some illusion of sovereignty... except for that minor problem that knowledge is not a service covered by the agreement. Really, knowledge should be a tradeable good because Premier Stelmach and Alberta could really learn from Norway's experience in not blowing a comparative advantage by planning for the future.

Also, Canada signed a free trade agreement with Peru. This was not such a big deal as Peru investors already had the right to sue the Canadian government under a previous Foreign Investment Protection and Promotion Agreement. An FTA with Peru merely allows Canadian mining companies greater ease to take Peru's resources.

After a lull in trade negotiations activity since the mid-1990s, the signing of these two agreements are part of Canada's Global Commerce Strategy. Whereas our major partner to the south been involved in the negotiation of about two-hundred bilateral trade agreements, Canada had signed approximately thirty. Of these, only two agreement were signed since 2000 (Croatia in 2001 and Peru).

Times changes, and after the initial chill effect of NAFTA and the public uproar of foreign investors suing governments Canada now wants to "take[] full advantage of globalization". The Global Commerce Strategy is an aggressive trade negotiations agenda "to secure competitive terms of access for Canadian businesses and investors in those markets where the opportunities are greatest." Althought the Global Commerce Strategy was included as part of Advantages Canada that was mentioned in the 2007 budget, these negotiations did not start up over night as part of the Tories free market agenda. They have been ongoing since at least 2004 - meaning that this initiative has been stick handled by David Emerson through successive Liberal and Tory regimes. Well, Mr. Emerson, it is great that Canada will not simply rely on trade with the U.S. to maintain the economy, but trade with Liechtenstein?

Happy to have travel insurance...

Hey Air Canada, ever think about meal vouchers for your stranded passengers when you cancel a flight and are unable to reschedule that day, 0r when the bridge ripes the door off the plane causing further delay? Just a thought. Carry on...

Your hallmark holiday valentine card brought to you by the Washington Post

Cards that warm the heart of any politico.

With Love, Dick Cheney.

The unbeatable Democratic power couple.

On Waiting

There is a widespread conviction in Dion's caucus that waiting can only play in their favour.

"My sense is that the public is not in a mood for an election yet," said MP Glen Pearson (London North Centre).

Is the public ever in the mood for an election? Has Glen Pearson ever canvassed door to door and heard people say "Oh, I really hope you go to an election"?

Back when Jean Chretien reigned supreme there were always complaints that everyone had to wait on the governing Liberals to call the election. The Tories came in promising to do away with this uncertainty and created fixed dates, or, apparently, whenever Deceivin' Stephen wants to pay a visit to the GG. Despite these "democratic reforms", we are still held captive by the Liberals whim of wanting an election.

Some MPs say the party is not well enough organized yet, while others think a continuing downturn in the economy will hurt the Tories' chances. And the party is wary about allowing Harper's strategy to dictate the timing of an election.

So the Liberals do not want an election because they are "not well enough organized yet". After two years of election readiness how can they not be "well enough organized"? This minority government has lasted longer than most. The longer Deceivin' Stephen stays in office the more he is permitted to appear prime ministerial in the minds of voters. This is only helped by the fact that the longer he is in power the more opportunities he has to boast that he can make Parliament work. (Update: just noticed Paul Wells has a similar argument about Harper staying in power).

However, should there be an election and the Conservatives end up with a minority again, then the knives will start to sharpened for Deceivin' Stephen. There is only so long that he can manage a "shut up and let me do the talking" routine before the less tolerant factions of his conservative coalition start finding their voice again. Look at the Ontario Progressive Conservatives - it did not take Randy Hillier long to start undermining his party from within.

Also, waiting for a downturn in the economy may not be the silver lining the Liberals hope. For one, Canada has yet to be impacted by the suggested recession to the south, and we may not be hit here. Second, economic downturns do not happen quick enough to suddenly mobilize a group of voters away from the governing party. Thirdly, Canadians, rightly or wrongly, still have faith in the Conservatives to lead Canada out of an economic downturn. In short, the economy is not the hot button issue that will drive voters away from the Conservatives.

It is clear that NDP and the Bloc are willing to throw caution to the wind and push an election. The NDP faces a weak Liberal party while maintaining respectable strength. Their organization is ready to go and the longer we wait the longer the have resources tied up for election readiness. The Bloc is facing a federal vote in Quebec divided by the faltering Liberals, surging Conservatives and the new kid on the block NDP. As long as their soft-sovereigntist votes do not float to the NDP or the Conservatives they stand to do well. For the Conservatives, it does not matter when they go. As mentioned above, the longer they wait they stand to benefit. If an election is held sooner, than their main opposition is a party whose leader they have worked hard at discrediting.

In short, just like when the Liberals were in government, we are still waiting on them to decide on the timing the election.

Alberta's false democracy

In my previous post, I referred to Alberta as having a false democracy because despite the holding of elections the outcomes are always known. In today's Edmonton Journal comes further proof of Alberta's false democracy. In most elections there are rumours of returning officers being on friendly terms with one party, but it is rare to see an actual story on the issue. On the other hand, it is rare to see such obvious examples of political connections. It would be amusing if it was not so sad to hear Calgary-Currie returning officer Robin Darsi state that his ability to be in charge of voters lists and to decide where polling stations should go is not tainted by the fact that he just lost the Progressive Conservative nomination in that very riding three months ago. Elections can be a dirty and contention competition, but when the structure is undemocratic only the dirt remains.

UPDATE:

The Edmonton Sun has more info on the lack of separation between those administering the election, and the ruling Tories. h/t to Calgarygrit:

It came after the Alberta Liberals noted that four returning officers appointed by the government have extremely strong Tory connections – including one officer who has openly criticized the Liberal candidate in her riding on a blog.

Alberta election week 1 goes to the media

Having thoroughly enjoyed from afar Ed Stelmach's bumbles and stumples in the first week of Alberta's false democracy's election, I have been most impressed by the media in Alberta.

By and large, the media has not pushed a Tory coronation which I have come to expect from such reputable papers as the Calgary Sun. Okay, maybe the Calgary Sun is only reputable for its coverage of the Calgary Flames, but considering that the chief political pundit of its main rival is Don Martin, one wonders if there is a progressive voice in any Calgary media bureau.

More interesting for Saskatchewanians is that the Edmonton Journal and Calgary Herald have different election coverage. Browsing online articles during the Saskatchewan election, one would find articles by Murray Mandryk or James Wood in the Regina Leader Post, and then find the same article under a different title in the Saskatoon Star-Phoenix. Like the Leader Post and the Star-Phoenix, the Journal and the Herald are owned by the same company. In fact, all four are owned by CanWest. Alberta is larger than Saskatchewan, and Calgary and Edmonton are much larger than Saskatoon and Regina, but both represent distinct major centres in their respective provinces and should have distinctive news media. The simple fact that Regina and Saskatoon have different papers suggests that there would be a divergence in media reporting. Besides, it is hard to believe that there was so little going on in a 30-odd day campaign which culminated in a shift of government that stories had to be recycled.

In all fairness, I am not judging media content, but I am simply noting that the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal are not two peas in a pod... or at least not Siamese peas in a pod.

For an excellent summary of week one of the Alberta election, check out Calgary Grit and Daveberta.

UPDATE:
Uncorrected Proofs has a good summary of winnable and potentially winnable ridings for the NDP. I will add the riding of West Yellowhead to the list. Although it is a long shot, this riding has gone Tory, Liberal and NDP in the past fifteen year, and there is no incumbent. Besides, I wanted to add one seat that was not in Redmonton.
The NDP faces the perennial challenge of being sidelined in a two-party race. With the Liberals on the rise and the Tories slumping, voters wanting change may side with the Liberals simply to push the Tories out. However, the Tories are not weak enough to be pushed out. In such an environment, the NDP may lucky to hold on to the four seats that they currently have. At the same time, the large amount of undecided may prove to be fertile ground for the NDP. Brian Mason is a charismatic leader and the NDP have a solid platform focusing on four major issues. If they can run a good ground campaign there is a good chance the NDP will maintain and potentially even grow. They received 9.7% in the 2004 election, which gives them room to grow.

Yet another Quebec NDP candidate announced

The NDP continues to role out a winning team in Quebec. Daniel Breton, a co-founder of the Parti vert du Québec will be announced on Saturday as the candidate for an unspecified Montreal riding, potentially Jeanne-Le-Ber.

M. Breton's jump from the Quebec Green Party to the federal NDP is not an indication of the NDP, the Greens and the Liberals battling for the same candidates. Rather, it is yet another indication that Quebec politics are completely different from the rest of Canada. Moreover, the fact that the NDP is able to attract credible candidates (instead of the student sacrificial lambs who ran in past elections) is a sign that Quebecers are viewing the NDP as a viable option. I suspect that before long the NDP will start announcing strong candidates in Quebec City where their poll numbers are rising (which I find surprising because I had always viewed Quebec City as fertile ground for Conservatives).

Alberta election news round-up

Here are some of the interesting stories on the Alberta election:

Nice feel good story in the Edmonton Journal about NDP leader Brian Mason. It makes you wish that the NDP was the main opposition and challenging the Tories. Mason seems to have more leadership potential than Liberal leader Kevin Taft, but it is Taft, based on number of MLAs and poll numbers, who is closer to succeeding Ed Stelmach.

Speaking of Stelmach, he has clearly been working hard in this four-day old election as his memory is going.

The NDP is seeking a breakthrough in Calgary. Good luck, but I am not sure this will happen. Those that want change will vote Liberal just to get to the Tories out. I hope I am wrong.

In another not so glowing story about the Tories, they are being taken to the Human Rights Commission for anti-Christian bigotry. I know that in the U.S. white guys have become the marginalized group in the Democratic primary race, but this is ridiculous. Parties have the right to refuse to accept candidates. Like it or not, but our vehicle for democratic representation is not necessarily run democratically. It must be tough to be a fundamentalist - to live your entire life with the guilt of your sins and then be marginalized by your favourite political party.

Interestingly enough, there are starting to be clear divergence on policies. The Liberals are calling for lower gas royalties, while the NDP is calling for higher oil and gas royalties. Also, the Liberals have released a rural platform. I have not read it yet, but it is a concept that all parties in Saskatchewan could look towards.

Romney out

I didn't expect it so soon.

With his impending exit, this makes the rumours of a McCain-Huckabee ticket less likely. Huckabee his McCain's main rival now and he does not need to cater to the religious right to prove he is a "real conservative" to beat Romney. This is good news for Huckabee who has been lagging in finances and organization and thus may be able to pick up some of that anti-McCain support.

Who would have thought that Ron Paul would be the in the final three?

A response from Maybe Smith

In my review of Maybe Smith's excellent "Animals and Architects", I commented that I was missing the complete version of three tracks due to faulty downloading from Maplemusic.com. Within a few days of posting the review, Maybe Smith (a.k.a. Colin Skrapek) swooped in to save the day providing me with the complete album. It is very humbling to know that Maybe Smith took the time to read the review and it is very generous of him to provide a solution my problem. Aside from it being wonderful to actually listen to the entire album without the odd track cutting out two minutes in in the midst of a "ahhhh...", it goes to show what an upstanding fellow Maybe Smith is.

On a related note, Maplemusic contacted me the same day that Maybe Smith did to inform me that my complaint was being looked into. They provide an excellent service, and it is nice to know that given enough time (or perhaps enough complaints) they do respond.

All in all, a huge thank you to Maybe Smith.

It only costs $8 million to terminate 200 public servants

I never thought I would link to the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, but they have a nice little pdf listing the positions and wages of the new political appointees and the cost of terminating partisan and "partisan" public servants. It only costs $8 million dollars to terminate politically appointed staff (i.e. those individuals who were working for the NDP and hired by order-in-council) and public servants "who may be too partisan to work for the New Saskatchewan Government but were fired before anyone could test that theory".

Also, apparently there is an approximately $65,000 wage difference between what men and women will earn working for the Saskatchewan Party.

Unsolicited advice: On defeating Stelmach

Today’s the day in Alberta. The Speech from the Thrown followed by a drop of the writ. March 3^rd is the magical date. Apparently, Albertan’s are to hear plenty of “37 years, that’s enough” as the Liberals, the NDP, the Wild Rose Alliance attempt to steal power from Alberta’s natural governing party. The message is true, but it is not necessarily the kernel of wisdom that Albertans will be thinking when they enter the voter box. To truly shake the ruling Conservatives out of their entrenchment, the opposition parties will have to be flawless and bold in their messaging. They must convince voters that there is a credible alternative.

"We're up against an opponent in the Conservative party that is tired and struggling to find its way. The Ralph factor is gone and that is certainly to our benefit," said Liberal Leader Kevin Taft, referring to former Tory premier Ralph Klein.

Being the Official Opposition and second in the polls, the Liberals are in the best position to challenge the Conservatives. The above statement is not reflective of one who is about to cease power. A declaration that the Liberals could not win against Ralph Klein simply reinforces their past weakness and it does not indicate their future strength.

With both the Liberals and the NDP releasing their platforms, it appears they are interested in fighting for the same votes. Both are interested in being the greenest party in Alberta. With the boom of the oil sands and the consequential environmental degradation it is an issue that is on the minds of voters, but it is not necessarily a winning issue.

To win the election, it is going to come down to trust: can your party be trusted to lead Alberta effectively? Voters are dissatisfied with the Conservatives, but they need to be convinced to change their vote. Voting Conservative is like a well worn pair of slippers – they are dirty and ragged, but they are comfortable. New slippers may provide better support, but they will need to be broken in and that takes time. Besides, there is always the possibility that they will not be as good as the old trust slippers. Voters need to be convinced that they need new slippers.

Luckily there is plenty of apprehension to mine. Premier Stelmach has not won the loyalty of voters. Urban voters are dissatisfied with a rural based premier who ignored urban concerns early on. Issues of patronage and flubbing the royalties review have repeatedly made headlines. Despite, as CalgaryGrit points out, Stelmach’s willingness to use the term “plan” the common view is that Alberta is moving ahead without one. Rural people feel that they are being left out of the economic boom. Finally and perhaps most importantly, Alberta is booming and is in fantastic financial state. Voters are more willing to make a change when they believe the change is not a risky proposition.

Trying to be the greenest party is great and you will be rewarded with four more years in opposition. However, to have an attempt at govern you must win the trust of Albertans that your party can lead the province better.

A rule of thumb in gaining the confidence of voters is that conservatives come in all sorts of shapes and stripes, but all Albertans are fiscal conservatives. A platform must be fiscally prudent, which means that it must have a view for the future while not establishing new taxes and not spending the province into debt. Alberta worked hard in the 1990s to get rid of its debt and it has since been rewarded with an oil boom. Voters do not want to return to the days of having to tighten their belts. One means of showing a fiscal conservative side, is to allocate a greater amount of the resources towards savings. Housing and infrastructure are all incredibly important issues, but increasing the savings of today for tomorrow demonstrates planning for a time when the oil prices drop.

Planning is also an area where the Conservatives are weak. A plan that addresses housing, infrastructure, health, and education while providing ideas on how Alberta can diversify and grow its economy will gain the trust of voters. However, the catch is that it needs to be realistic and creative and bold enough to get the media to talk about it. The media is important because most voters do not read platforms, but they do pay attention to the news.

The Liberals agenda for “the Western Tiger” is not the bold creative idea that will bring enough voters to them. The concept is good. Strengthen Western Canada and everyone benefits. However, the plan infers that Alberta should put their relationship with the U.S. in neutral. Albertans, like everyone, want to see their communities be strong while their influence grows. The Conservatives have been selling the message that they have sway in the U.S., and a plan that calls for looking to Saskatchewan instead of Texas for growth is not going to sell.

Alberta is in a unique place in its history. Alberta has generally been a protest province. Ralph Klein thrived through his battles with Jean Chretien over issues of jurisdiction. The current Prime Minister is a native son, and a Conservative to boot. Locking horns with Stephen Harper will not win soft Conservative votes. Instead of promoting a “Western Tiger”, now is the time to promote Alberta as a leader in Canada. It is not as if Harper and Stelmach are drinking buddies, so there is a possibility for another party to try to use the coat tails of Harper to push a pro-Alberta, pro-Canada agenda.

The NDP has a simple four-point plan that will be easy to sell on the door step. Unfortunately, similar to the Liberals problem, it is not a message that the media will picked up and discuss. With this plan, the NDP risks following the lead of the Ontario NDP in the 2007 election. It is a plan that speaks to NDP voters, not to new voters. This is an excellent plan if the party only wants to maintain their level of support, not grow it.

What is missing for parties is a plan for communities. Vote-rich rural Alberta has been in the hands of the Conservatives for too long. A way to stop this is by having a plan that promotes community development and life in small towns. Rural voters do not want to see shops close closed while reading headlines about a booming economy. Of course, it will likely be hardest to win over life-long rural Conservative voters, but it must be done if a change of government is really going to take shape.

Hail to the one man band: Maybe Smith – Animals & Architects

I was introduced to Maybe Smith by that illustrious host of CBC’s Fuse, Amanda Putz. Always one to draw Saskatchewan links, she dropped a note saying “hey, you like all things Saskatchewan. Come to a Fuse taping where Maybe Smith is playing”. Never having heard of him/them/it/the band/the artist, I immediately confused Maybe Smith with a really bad pop band from Regina, circa. 1999, called May B Ted (they had a song called "Wet" that received minor play on Regina’s radio waves, with a chorus that went “wet, wet, she gets me wet, inside my head” - shudder). Thankfully I was mistaken, but unfortunately I could not attend. I did catch the radio broadcast where I was not turnoff.

By the end of 2007, Maybe Smith had become a Canadian indie darling. The name kept on popping up. I could no longer put off finding out more about this artist, so I went in search of Maybe Smith’s discs. My search for any four of the Maybe Smith discs was without success. I contacted the website and I was rewarded with a very prompt email reply informing me that they were working on getting the disc in stores in Ottawa. Giving up on finding a physical copy, I turned to Maplemusic.com to download the latest album. Unfortunately, the downloading process was flawed and I am missing parts of a few songs. Attempts to re-download these songs did not solve the problem. My repeated inquiries to Maplemusic have gone unanswered. Although I love the support that Maplemusic provides to Canadian artists, I am not sure I will download from them again.

Despite having an album with some incomplete songs, “Animals and Architects” has been in constant rotation for the past three weeks. Thus, an album that was released in April 2007 is being reviewed in 2008. Had I listened to it in 2007 it would have been a strong contender for my Top 10.

Really, how could I not enjoy Maybe Smith? A one man band (whose real name is Colin Skrapek), who composes wonderful indie melodies from his basement in Saskatoon. He writes a mean melody that gets into your head. “Bloody Nose” and “Open War” are prime examples of songs you will be humming long after you turned the stereo off. And it is very much the melodies that are memorable as the lyrics seem to support the melody rather than the melody enhancing the lyrics. I am a lover of fine lyrics, which is why a band like the Weakerthans is a favourite even if at times the music hides in the background, but Maybe Smith’s music is so engaging as an ensemble that the lyrics are but one small part. This is not to say that the lyrics go unappreciated, because they are an integral aspect of the songs. Plus I quite enjoy Maybe Smith’s absurdist thoughts, as with the self-explanatory “I fight birds”.

The music can best be described as poppy and bouncing, a drilling synthesizer with its keyboard rhythmically pounded. Guitar rifts are sprinkled over the looping piano, while the drums and bass thump in the background. All of this in wrapped with a bow of distortion. It is catchy, it is danceable – it is all good.

Are there any stand outs on this album? Many, including those songs I mentioned above. However the real strength is that this is a great album all the way through. You will never have to hit skip on stereo.

Yahoo! takeover

Microsoft has proposed a takeover of Yahoo! for $44.6 billion! Who knew that Yahoo! had that type of market value? A company that announced revenues of $6.97 billion in 2007 and that they will be laying off 1,000 staff, which was considered a good year for them, and they are worth that much to Microsoft?

I just had to my express shock and awe that Yahoo! would be valued that high, or that Microsoft believes it would have a better time running Yahoo! after its disastrous launch of Vista. Carry on...

UPDATE: The Globe has some reaction to the takeover bid here. Apparently it great for Yahoo! shareholders. No word yet on whether it is great for Yahoo! high-tech workers
UPDATE2: More reactions at the Globe. This time tech columnist Mathew Ingram scopes the blogosphere. My favourite quote is from IPDemocracy:

Yes, Yahoo! shareholders will get a hefty premium for their tanking shares. Yes, a bunch of people will get laid off if Microsoft achieves its "synergies" and "economies of scale." Yes, a lot of investment bankers will walk away with enough funds to buy their second or third vacation homes. Aside from that, a merger between Microsoft and Yahoo! is just boring. Neither company has done much that is terribly innovative or interesting for years. What, precisely, will merging these two lumbering, bureaucratic giants achieve that is even remotely interesting?

I hardly think that tons of people losing their job while shareholders, lawyers and investment bankers lose their jobs is boring. If I was one of Yahoo!'s 14,000 employees, I would be worried (unless I was in the ad department). On the tech side of things, they make an excellent point that neither company has been known for innovation (and with Vista Microsoft is no longer known for quality products), and that this merger nothing for Yahoo! and Microsoft consumers.