House Cleaning

Happy New Years. May the year be heavy on the clover.

Doing a little house cleaning here at wheatsheafsk.com by tossing out my two bits on perennial topics of interest.

First up: The Polls.

Apparently Canadians do care about prorogation and do not care about Ignatieff. Despite all the wonderful discussion about the Liberals having hit levels not seen since Dion, i.e. last year, come election time Canadians will support Ignatieff and the Liberals. Not support, like let's let these guys govern level support, but more than 26% support. The Liberal Party is the great default. It is that place where one does not have to think about the consequences. The Liberals will waffle on any issue, provide consistent management, and every is secure in the knowledge that no drastic change will occur. They are kind of like Bell Canada in that way - a huge inefficient corporation, that provides steady if not spectacular returns, that has crappy customer service but do manage to have the phone lines operate. Ignatieff fits as leader beautifully as he comes with a trusted intellectual pedigree. Although his deep intellectual writings are a series of personal reflections, this counts for something among everyone who wants to read something without having to think about it. Voters will prefer this intellectual pedigree for a Prime Minister, over, say someone like Jack Layton, who voters would rather go for a beer with.

As the Conservatives have managed the aid to Haiti situation well, this will be feather in their cap to recovery.

The parties that should tread cautious are the two that have benefited in the polls from the prorogation issue. Although the NDP have consistently harped on Harper's lack of respect for government and democracy, there rise to 19% might prove fleeting. There hard work on one issue has made off. Unfortunately for them, they must find the spark of another issue to build the momentum. The Greens have benefited from prorogation for, well as far as I can tell, no reason at all. This has to be worrying for them as it means that there numbers are artificially inflated - people are parking their vote with the Green (and I suspect with the NDP, and perhaps the Liberals) for the sake of the polls in the aftermath of prorogation - this may not be a reflection of what would happen if an election were held today.

Which moves us to the second topic: election speculation.

I am inclined to believe that, despite certain media's fascination with the idea that an election will be this spring, it will not. There is a sentiment that with a positive bounce from the Olympics, mixed with an election style Speech from the Throne and a budget, the Tories will push for an election in March/April. What this situation takes into account is that if the Tories may want an election, they will make it happen. And that is correct. But is it in the Tories interest to force an election?

The wildcard is the Liberals, and with a policy convention in March, lackluster polling, a lack of communication on why they should be counted on to govern, it is unlikely that the Liberals will want an election any time soon. Moreover, it unclear on whether the NDP or Bloc would want to push for one. The Tories would have to have an egregious budget that would prevent all of the opposition parties from supporting it. But then it is again the Tories orchestrating the timing of the election.

That is not to say that there will not be one in 2010 - simply that it will not be in March or April.

I will deal with more immediate predictions, re cabinet shuffles, tomorrow.

Election speculation - Liberal wo

Polling numbers and Liberals rebound