Re Shuffling

Stephen Harper shuffles his cabinet as often as he shuffles his principles. Because he is stuck with a minority government that prevents him from his goal of controller of Canada, this happens to be pretty often. Well... at least often in the sense that principles are pillars of support that change every few months because of polling numbers or the whim of your closed circle of advisers.

So the word on the mean streets of Ottawa is that there will be a Cabinet shuffle on Tuesday, forced because of Greg Thompson's decision to step down. Or...perhaps that is the other way around... that Thompson was forced to step down. One never to enjoy air travel, he may want find an opportunity that requires less travel...say like the Senate, for example. Luckily there is a Senate seat in New Brunswick that Harper is itching to fill. Moreover, Thompson is one of the last three surviving MPs from the Joe Clark era. Although many PCers long ago forgot they disagreed with the crazy western right wingers and embraced the Conservatives when presented with the option of submission or castration, surely the loss of one of the few remaining leaders of the PCs must be a sign of marginalization of the PC wing.

The other exit that is expected is that Vic Toews will be bumped to the Manitoba bench. This is one of Ottawa's longest living rumours - competing with the three-year duration of James Moore's promotion to cabinet rumour that finally ended in the fall of 2008. Toews has been said to be vying for that post since his days as Justice Minister, which prevented him from appointing himself. Therefore he has been a good soldier by acting as the President of the Treasury Board, at least in title as he avoided the department's business.

Otherwise, it is doubtful that there will be any big changes. At the end of the day, Harper is loyal and only make changes when he feels there is something to gain, not a problem to solve. Therefore, despite much media speculation, Peter Mackay will be hanging tough at Defence. The incompetently competent Lawrence Cannon will stay in place at Foreign Affairs. Stockwell Day, a proven an inept leader, has transformed into an adept manager as Minister of International Trade. Jim Flaherty will stay put - because why would you change Finance Ministers just a month for presenting a budget? Although Bev Oda should be dismissed as Minister of International Cooperation over the fiasco that is Rights and Democracy, it is hard to believe that she has any say in actual appointments. James Moore has quieted the ruckus over cultural avoidance at Heritage, and Jim Prentice has moved portfolios too many times. Besides, he stayed out of trouble in Copenhagen, which was This was no mean feet considering one of his predecessors performances in Bali.

Speaking of Ambrose, she could be the surprise demotion. Having peaked as the attractive MP in opposition, she has been spiraling down towards invisibility ever since. Besides, with a government in a serious deficit situation and rumoured to be downloading responsibility to the provinces (also another reason to keep Flaherty in Finance - he has first hand experience on screwing over other levels of government and getting away with it), Harper will want an Intergovernmental Affairs Minister that can stick-handle the provinces.

The other demotion will likely be Lisa Raitt. Harper has a tendency to remove a Minister only once the heat over their incompetency has died down. Now would be that time for Raitt. Unlike Ambrose who may be out, Raitt will get a less attractive post than her current Natural Resources, but will likely remain at the Cabinet table.

So who will be in and where? Good question. Thank you for asking, but I can only guess.

If Ambrose gets shifted out of Cabinet, Harper needs to elevate a female or risk headlines that the mini-shuffle was about demoting women. What better than but to replace one successful Alberta female politician with another? Thus Diane Ablonczy may be promoted to a safe place like President of the Treasury Board. This elevates Ablonczy's wisdom at the Cabinet table, but puts her in a place where she can do little damage like give out funding to pride parades. Moreover, with rumours of cuts to the civil service abound, a female touch may be considered more sensitive.

The position of Intergovernmental Affairs could go two ways. One option would be to return Mad Max Bernier to Cabinet. This would be a popular francophone in charge of provincial relations. However, with a military base in his riding, Bernier would also be an excellent selection for the position of Veteran Affairs. The other would be to place Raitt in the position, thereby having an individual with management experience in charge of tough provincial negotiations.